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If 1 percent of the bolts made by an automotive factory are defective what is the probability that in a shipment of 175 bolts there are 6 defective bolts?
Wiki User
∙ 14y ago
If 1% of the bolts are defective, then the probability is that close to 2 bolts will be defective if there are 175 bolts. The actual probability is that 1.75 bolts will be defective, but you can not have 3/4 of a bolt. However you know there are going to be runs when you have no errors and runs when you have several error. You would need to make 300 bolts in order to have a run of 125 with no errors to have 3 defective bolts in a run of 1.75 bolts. Likewise, you would need to make a minimum of 600 bolts to have six defective bolts in 1.75 bolts. Then you would have 425 good bolts. However, you are dealing with probabilities, not with getting the machinery started the first thing in the morning. Since there is a 1% error rate, you must assume this is a random rate. It occurs like dice or a coin flip. With the last coin tossed, you have no idea what the next coin flip will be. It is not like the next coin flip will be the opposite. Using the Monte Carlo method, I got .29%. Good luck
Wiki User
∙ 14y ago
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