Birth months are not uniformly distributed across the year. However, if yo assume that they are, the probability is 0.9536 (approx).
The probability of at least 1 match is equivalent to 1 minus the probability of there being no matches. The first person's birthday can fall on any day without a match, so the probability of no matches in a group of 1 is 365/365 = 1. The second person's birthday must also fall on a free day, the probability of which is 364/365 The probability of the third person also falling on a free day is 363/365, which we must multiply by the probability of the second person's birthday being free as this must also happen. So for a group of 3 the probability of no clashes is (363*364)/(365*365). Continuing this way, the probability of no matches in a group of 41 is (365*364*363*...326*325)/36541 This can also be written 365!/(324!*36541) Which comes to 0.09685... Therefore the probability of at least one match is 1 - 0.09685 = 0.9032 So the probability of at least one match is roughly 90%
1-365/[(365-6)*365^6] = 1 Is this O.K ?
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This is a Binomial Probability Distribution; n=4, p=0.6. The probability of at least 1 passed is equal to the probability of 1-none passed; so x=0. The probability of x=0 (with n=4, p=0.6) is 0.0256. So, the probability of at least 1 passed is 1-0.0256 or 0.9744.
The probability that 2 people have the same number is 2 out of 10
The probability of at least 2 people in a group of npeople sharing a common birthday can be expressed more easily (mathematically) as 1 minus the probability that nobody in the group shares a birthday. Consider two people. The probability that they don't have a common birthday is 365/365 x 364/365. So the probability that they do share a birthday is 1-(365/365 x 364/365) = 1-365x364/3652 Now consider 3 people. The probability that at least 2 share a common birthday is 1-365x364x363/3653 And so on so that the probability that at least 2 people in a group of n people having the same birthday = 1-(365x363x363x...x365-n+1)/365n = 1-365!/[ (365-n)! x 365n ]In the case of 12 people this equates to 0.16702 (or 16.7%).
The probability is 1.
The probability of at least 1 match is equivalent to 1 minus the probability of there being no matches. The first person's birthday can fall on any day without a match, so the probability of no matches in a group of 1 is 365/365 = 1. The second person's birthday must also fall on a free day, the probability of which is 364/365 The probability of the third person also falling on a free day is 363/365, which we must multiply by the probability of the second person's birthday being free as this must also happen. So for a group of 3 the probability of no clashes is (363*364)/(365*365). Continuing this way, the probability of no matches in a group of 41 is (365*364*363*...326*325)/36541 This can also be written 365!/(324!*36541) Which comes to 0.09685... Therefore the probability of at least one match is 1 - 0.09685 = 0.9032 So the probability of at least one match is roughly 90%
1-365/[(365-6)*365^6] = 1 Is this O.K ?
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Using the hypergeometric distribution, the answer is 2114/3003 = 0.7040
The probability of at least one event occurring out of several events is equal to one minus the probability of none of the events occurring. This is a binomial probability problem. Go to any binomial probability table with p=0.2, n=3 and the probability of 0 is 0.512. Therefore, 1-0.512 is 0.488 which is the probability of at least 1 sale.
19.4%CALCULATION:The probability of at least 2 people having the same birthday in a group of 13people is equal to one minus the probability of non of the 13 people having thesame birthday.Now, lets estimate the probability of non of the 13 people having the same birthday.(We will not consider 'leap year' for simplicity, plus it's effect on result is minimum)1. We select the 1st person. Good!.2. We select the 2nd person. The probability that he doesn't share the samebirthday with the 1st person is: 364/365.3. We select the 3rd person. The probability that he doesn't share the samebirthday with 1st and 2nd persons given that the 1st and 2nd don't share the samebirthday is: 363/365.4. And so forth until we select the 13th person. The probability that he doesn'tshare birthday with the previous 12 persons given that they also don't sharebirthdays among them is: 353/365.5. Then the probability that non of the 13 people share birthdays is:P(non of 13 share bd) = (364/365)(363/365)(362/365)∙∙∙(354/365)(353/365)P(non of 13 share bd) ≈ 0.805589724...Finally, the probability that at least 2 people share a birthday in a group of 13people is ≈ 1 - 0.80558... ≈ 0.194 ≈ 19.4%The above expression can be generalized to give the probability of at least x =2people sharing a birthday in a group of n people as:P(x≥2,n) = 1 - (1/365)n [365!/(365-n)!]
This is a Binomial Probability Distribution; n=4, p=0.6. The probability of at least 1 passed is equal to the probability of 1-none passed; so x=0. The probability of x=0 (with n=4, p=0.6) is 0.0256. So, the probability of at least 1 passed is 1-0.0256 or 0.9744.
13, if you want to be sure. It's impossible for a group of 13 people not to have at least one pair that share a birth month, because there are only 12 months.If you'll settle for a lower probability, thechance that a group of 5 randomly chosen people will contain at least one pair born in the same month is about 3/5, and if you gather 6 people the chance that at least two of them will share a birth month is about 4/5. Those aren't exact probabilities both because the math doesn't work out that way and and because birthdays are not randomly distributed by month ... significantly fewer people are born in February than in August. An exact probability would need to take that into account, and it's frankly more research and math than I want to do unless I'm getting paid for it.
The probability that 2 people have the same number is 2 out of 10
It is 1 - 365Cn/365n. This is greater than 0.5 for n greater than or equal to 23.