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Various factors go into calculating the probability.
How you drive,proper tire and car maintenance ,tire rotations and road conditions are some of the factors that all play a part in how long your tires will last. If all handled properly I would say close to 100%.

This is not actually as complicated as it looks. All tyres will last for exactly 100000 km, as stated; this means all tyres will wear out at that distance. The probability of all wearing out before that distance is therefore zero.

This is a different question than one such as "the probability of a tyre lasting to 100000km is XYZ% so what is the probability of all wearing out before 100000km?".

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Q: A tires life is 100 000km You buy 4 tires What is the probability that all 4 tires will wear out before 100 000km?
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