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you need to know more about the paper cup. what is its shape? is it weighted more on a side or bottom? when you are computing the chances are you including your knowledge of the outcome of the previous 365 times you tossed the cup? how are you tossing it? how high are you tossing it? etc.

clearly there is a lot of unanswered questions before we can give a good answer.

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Q: If you toss a paper cup 365 times what is the chance of it landing on its side?
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