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Suppose you wanted to determine the probability of a student being found at some location in your school building at 10 AM How might you investigate this problem?
Wiki User
∙ 13y ago
One method is direct observation. Simply watch that part of the school every day at 10am, and record whether or not the person is there. Then you can determine the probability from your data set.
A more difficult method and one that is fraught with error is trying to estimate it by making a series of guesses. For example, in order for the student to be at that location, they would have to be inside the school, so, if the school is locked on a Sunday, then this probability is nearly zero. But not completely zero. What if the student broke into the school? So you can see that its very difficult to predict accurately. Many consultants are paid to do risk analysis to estimate the chances of things occurring, and their estimates usually vary so widely that its dubious if this can even be done.
Wiki User
∙ 13y ago
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