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The answer depends on exactly what you means by "from" Bethlehem: born in Bethlehem or currently living in Bethlehem. If he first, then let X = All persons born in Bethlehem.

Y = All persons born in Israel.

The probability of a person born is Israel being from Bethlehem is X/Y.

There is probably a need for a correction, though. What about people born in Bethlehem before 1948. Whatever your political angle, they were not born in Israel because Israel did not exist as a state that time!

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Q: What are the odds that a person born in Israel would be from Bethlehem?
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