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There is not enough information to answer the question but if my personal experience is anything to go by, it is pretty close to 1.

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The largest factor of a light bulb not reaching its expected life expectancy is rough use or vibration. The duty cycle of the lamp also has a bearing on the longevity of the bulb, the more cycling of the lamp the shorter the life will be.

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Q: What is the probability that a 1200 hr light bulb will burn out in 1000 hrs?
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