Probable Cause simplified means that if a "reasonable person were to hear the story conveyed to them, is it possible that the event(s) occurred they way they claim it did? of course it also has to meet the elements of a particular crime in order for it to be illegal as well.
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Probable cause refers to the standard by which a police officer has the right to make an arrest, conduct a personal or property search, or to obtain a warrant for arrest. It is also used to refer to the standard to which a grand jury believes that a crime has been committed.
Probable cause as it relates to a search warrant is just that. The place detailed in the affidavit "probably' has the item you wish to search for. This is based on information received from informants, neighbors etc. Someone saw what you are looking for at the location, how reliable the information is, etc.
In this context, probable cause is the reasonable belief that a search will recover evidence of a crime.