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The simplest - and not very useful - method is to establish how many days in the year it rains or snows. Then that number, divided by 365 (or 365.25) is the probability that it will rain or snow on a given day.

You can improve on that estimate by considering data for only the days on which it rained or snowed during the relevant month in previous years. Further refinement can come from looking at what the weather was like on the previous day, previous 2 days and so on. Yet another improvement is to look at what is happening upwind from your location. Each refinement requires more information to be processed but improves your forecast. The trade-off is reached when the marginal cost and time spent in collecting and processing any additional data is just equal to the marginal benefit obtained from an improved forecast.

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Q: How do find the probability that it will rain or snow in a given day?
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