The indexes predict by assuming that past trends and relationships will continue into the future.
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This forecasting model uses historical data to try to predict future events.
Maths is required to build equations that can accurately predict outcomes of future events, which is the essence of science.
"Probability" is not something that occurs in the future. It's the numerical likelihood of something happening in the future. You don't predict the probability. You calculate it.
There are many ways one might use Exponential Smoothing. Basically, Exponential Smoothing is a simple calculation one uses to collect data that allows one to predict future events.
Quantitative forecasting tools are used to predict future figures and quantities such as sizes and lengths. Qualitative forecasting tools are used to predict what something in the future will be like in terms of things other than set figures. For instance, they could predict what type a future element will be; what color it will be; what the nature of it will be.