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It has nothing to do with agreement or negotiation. There's only one order of operations that leads to the correct outcome.
weapon systems acquisition milestones
The first step is to find a model that adequately represents the situation. You then apply reasoning based on the laws of science, along with some assumption regarding the model, to find out how likely a given outcome is. That value is its theoretical probability.
You make an outcome by solving everything and the result that is left is referred to as the outcome!!
When the outcome consists of an event that is not the one you are looking for.