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Species become extinct all the time. So the probability that one species or another will become extinct in the near future is one (meaning a certainty). But if you are asking whether a catastrophic event -- such as a huge asteroid striking the Earth and causing cataclysmic devastation -- will lead to mass extinction of all Earth's species, well, that's another matter altogether. According to NASA, the probability that the Earth will be struck by an undiscovered near-Earth object (NEO) that is bigger than one kilometer in diameter is one in 100,000 per year. The chances are much greater -- one in just 100 -- for objects the size of the one believed to have devastated a region of Siberia in 1908. (See provided link to the Tunguska event.) I am assuming that a 1-km asteroid would wreak sufficient havoc to destroy most, if not all, life on the planet.

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Q: What are the chances of a future extinction event?
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