what is expected is to see if the outcome of the factor increases or decreses
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When we've proven that the hypothesis is false !
You first decide on a null hypothesis. Expected frequencies are calculated on the basis of the null hypothesis, that is, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.
no a hypothesis is your guess of what the outcome is going to be in your experiment. For example. My experiment's question is to see what happens when I mix salt with water. My Hypothesis is the salt will float. Now the correct outcome is the salt sinked. I hope I helped you.
For a chi-square test there is a null hypothesis which describes some distribution for the variable that is being tested. The expected frequency for a particular cell is the number of observations that would be expected in that cell if the null hypothesis were true.
Fair means unbiased. That is to say, the expected outcome of a set of trials is the same as what would be expected on theoretical grounds.