What is the probability of 2 drownings in a city of 200000?

Answer 1

It is impossible to answer the question because it is almost meaningless. How long for two drownings? Over a one minute interval the probability is likely to be 0 while if you wait a million years, the event is likely to be a certainty and so the probability is 1.

The answer also depends on the city. In a city that is a long way from a river or ocean it would be pretty low: mainly bathtub or swimming pool accidents. On the other hand in a city on the banks of a river that frequently floods the probability will be much higher.