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2.5 ton
2 ton
In a Cold Climate and Hot Climate: Each ton of heat pump capacity can heat/cool approximately 500-600 square feet.In a Moderate Climate: Each ton of heat pump capacity can heat/cool 600-700 square feet.So either a 5.0 ton heat pump in a cold climateor a 4.5 ton heat pump in a moderate climate.
40 ft x 28 ft = 1120 square feet
I would recommend 1 HP