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This is a high-risk outlook.
A 60 percent tornado outlook would mean that the SPC anticipates an extremely intense tornado outbreak with multiple violent tornadoes. Only one such outlook has been issued. It was on April 7, 2006. The event was far less severe than anticipated.
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What does the 2 percent tornado probability from the spc typically mean?
A 2 percent tornado probability typically means that isolated and probably weak tornadoes are possible.
What does the 30 percent tornado probability from the spc typically mean?
This qualifies as a high-risk outlook. A 30 percent tornado probability typically means that the Storm Prediction Center anticipates a major tornado outbreak with the potential for multiple long-track and violent tornadoes.
What does the 45 percent tornado probability from the spc typically mean?
This qualifies as a high-risk outlook. Such an outlook generally means that the SPC anticipates a major tornado outbreak with the potential for multiple long-tracked and violent tornadoes. Since the SPC started publishing outlooks online in 2003, only four days have featured 45% or greater tornado outlooks.
What does the 5 percent tornado probability from the spc typically mean?
It can vary considerably as the is a fair degree of uncertainty. Usually it will mean a few scattered and mostly weak tornado will occur. Tornadoes stronger than EF2 are probably unlikely, though there are exceptions. This qualifies as a slight risk outlook.
What does the 15 percent tornado probability from the spc typically mean?
This qualifies as a moderate risk outlook. A 15 percent tornado probability outook can have a variable meanin due to uncertainty inherent in such forecasts. However, they may often predict moderate tornado outbreaks and sometimes major outbreaks. In such cases strong tornadoes are not uncommon and there is sometimes potential for violent tornadoes. As with other outlooks, some systems are far less severe than anticipated.
