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Likely means the same as probable and probable refers to the probability that something might happen,
Probability is measured using a scale of probability from zero to one.
Zero means that the event will definitely not happen whereas a probability of 1 means that the event is certain to happen, Similarly a probability of 0.5 means that the event is just as likely not to happen as to happen.
What is the probability that you could swim the Atlantic unaided? Zero
What is the probability that a bird will die? One
What is the probability that I can throw a 1 with a dice? 1 out of 6 = 0.1666666.......
What is the probability that I can toss a "heads" with a coin? 50% = 0.5 = one half
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