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The term empirical means "based on observation or experiment." An empirical probability is generally, but not always, given with a number indicating the possible percent error (e.g. 80+/-3%). A theoretical probability, however, is one that is calculatedbased on theory, i.e., without running any experiments.
Since there is no theory that will calculate the probability that an area will experience an earthquake within a given time frame, the 90% figure is an empirical probability, presumably based on data of major earthquakes in the San Francisco area over past years.
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How well do you understand the difference between empirical and theoretical probability?
I know it extremely well. Thank you for asking.
What is the difference between experimental and theoretical probability?
The difference between experimental probability and theoretical probability is that experimental probability is the probability determined in practice. Theoretical probability is the probability that should happen. For example, the theoretical probability of getting any single number on a number cube is one sixth. But maybe you roll it twice and get a four both times. That would be an example of experimental probability.
What is The difference between an empirical distribution and a theoretical distribution?
empirical distribution is based on your observation of out comes, it is based on real data. on the other hand theoretical is base on your theory regarding the distribution and the parameters, (i.e. normal/exponential...., u=5 vs u .5....and so on)
What is the difference between probability and actuality?
probability is a guess and actuality is what will happen
What does probability of an event mean?
Probability is the likelihood, expressed in numerical or ratiometric terms, that an event will occur. A probability of 1 means that the event will occur. A probability of 0 means that the event will not occur. A probability of 0.5 means that the likelihood of the event occurring is equal to the likelihood of it not occurring. For instance, a fair coin has a 0.5 probability of being heads, and a 0.5 probability of being tails. Defined formally, probability is the number of permutations of the desired outcome divided by the number of permutations of all possible outcomes. Take a standard six-sided die, for instance. There are six permutations. One of them is a 1, so the probability of rolling a 1 is 1 in 6, or about 0.1667. Probability is not assured. If you roll a die 600 times, you will not necessarily get 100 1's. Over the long run, you will approach that outcome, but each trial will have different results. This is the difference between theoretical probability and experimental probability - theoretical being the mathematical estimate - experimental being the observed results.
