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# How would you calculate the probability of an event occurring?

Updated: 11/1/2022

Wiki User

10y ago

There are two main methods: theoretical and empirical.

The first of these is used when there is a relatively simple model for the possible outcomes of a trial. For example, if you roll a fair die, laws of physics suggest that each of the six faces is equally likely to end up on the top face. The probability for each of the six numbers is, therefore, 1/6.

The second method is used when there is no satisfactory model based purely on theory: if you have a loaded die, for example. It may, just about, be possibly to analyse the physical properties of the mass distribution within the coin and develop an appropriate model for the outcome of a throw. However, it is simpler to use the second method. Given the chance, roll the die again and again (and again and again and ... ) and record the outcomes. The probability of any particular outcome is the proportion of the trials that result in that particular event. Thus, if a loaded die comes up 6 fifty times out of 200 throws, then the probability of throwing a 6 is 50/200 = 0.25.

Wiki User

10y ago