Where do you see probability in everyday life?

Answer 1

Everywhere and all the time!

Should I take an umbrella as I go out? What was the weather forecast (the meteorological office's probability estimate)? But does it look like it's going to rain (my estimate of probability)? No, it doesn't look like rain. Don't care what the Met office says (my estimate of the probability that the met office gets it wrong).

Arrive at the bus stop / train station / empty cab rank / cafe counter. How long have I to wait? Oh, this is boring, how much longer? Queueing theory - part of probability theory - dealing with random arrival at service point, exponential gaps between the service that you want (Poisson events).

Later: Hey, that person sitting across from me is hot! HOT! Should I ask him/her out? (What is the probability that my approach will get a positive response? or worse, that my current partner will find out?).

In some of these cases the probability of the event can be estimated pretty accurately by a skilled person with access to plenty of data, in others it may be all down to a subjective assessment of the situation. But we are all surrounded by uncertainty most of the time and we are continuously estimating probabilities (whether consciously or not), and making decisions about our actions depending on these assessments.