Statistically speaking; a sure thing.
Most people are not statistically trained so the probability of whether or not you are forecasting is so close to 0 that knowing its value is of little help.
Data is statistically significant if the p (probability) value is below a certain level (ex: 5% or 1%). The p value describes how often one would receive the results they got if left to chance alone. The lower the p value, the less likely it is that your results were due to chance and is stronger evidence against the null hypothesis. Also important to keep in mind is that just because something is statistically significant does not mean it is practically significant.
No, it is not.
Read the introduction to probability and probability measures at StatLect.com
Statistically speaking; a sure thing.
Most people are not statistically trained so the probability of whether or not you are forecasting is so close to 0 that knowing its value is of little help.
If events A and B are statistically indepnedent, then the conditional probability of A, given that B has occurred is the same as the unconditional probability of A. In symbolic terms, Prob(A|B) = Prob(A).
Data is statistically significant if the p (probability) value is below a certain level (ex: 5% or 1%). The p value describes how often one would receive the results they got if left to chance alone. The lower the p value, the less likely it is that your results were due to chance and is stronger evidence against the null hypothesis. Also important to keep in mind is that just because something is statistically significant does not mean it is practically significant.
Data is statistically significant if the p (probability) value is below a certain level (ex: 5% or 1%). The p value describes how often one would receive the results they got if left to chance alone. The lower the p value, the less likely it is that your results were due to chance and is stronger evidence against the null hypothesis. Also important to keep in mind is that just because something is statistically significant does not mean it is practically significant.
No, it is not.
From a probability perspective fair means equal probability.
Read the introduction to probability and probability measures at StatLect.com
It means multiply, Probaility of A and B means probability of A multiplied by probability of B.
The mean of a binomial probability distribution can be determined by multiplying the sample size times the probability of success.
Statistically, this is true in all probability, since this kind of salacious scene would tend to sell tickets.
The probability level for an outcome is the probability that the outcome was at least as extreme as the one that was observed.