Most people are not statistically trained so the probability of whether or not you are forecasting is so close to 0 that knowing its value is of little help.
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Yes.
To decide whether or not to take an umbrella as you go out, you need to know the probability that it will rain.To decide whether or not to take an umbrella as you go out, you need to know the probability that it will rain.To decide whether or not to take an umbrella as you go out, you need to know the probability that it will rain.To decide whether or not to take an umbrella as you go out, you need to know the probability that it will rain.
The answer depends on whether the question is in the context of a deck of playing cards or some other collection, whether or not the cards are replaced after picking, whether the cards are selected at random. Since there is no information on any of these aspects, it is not possible to give a useful answer to the question.
When there is uncertainty about the outcome of a trial or experiment.
The probability depends on the nature of the outcomes in the set: whether or not they are mutually exclusive, independent.