If you take the number of plane crashes from the last thirteen years (9/11 doesn't really throw the number off) there is a plane crash about every two days, with an average of 178 a year. They happen frequently, you just don't hear about them unless they have a high fatality rate.
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You calculate the statistical probability of dying in a plane crash in the same way that you calculate the probability of anything else. You simply divide the number of expected outcomes by the number of possible outcomes. To determine the statistical probability of dying in a plane crash, you divide the number of people that have died in a plane crash by the number of people that have flown in planes. You can aggregate this anyway you want, over whatever period of time you want, so long as you properly state the conditions under which you perform your calculation.
Operator error is the number one cause of all crashes.
A car crash is much more probable than a plane crash if you take into consideration how many people will travel by car per day compared to the number who will travel by air; take into consideration how many cars with how many drivers are likely to make a mistake compared to the number of planes and flight crews.
There are many more buses than passenger airplanes, so even though buses can be safer per passenger mile, there are more bus crashes. You WAY more likely to be in a bus crash, then in a plane crash. thousands, and thousands of car/automobile's crash every year. And only about a few hundred plane's crash a year.
to slim to worry