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What is the probability of hitting a target if in the long run 71 out of every 489 attempts actually hit the target?
The probability is 71/489 = 0.145, approx.
What are the chances of a future extinction event?
Species become extinct all the time. So the probability that one species or another will become extinct in the near future is one (meaning a certainty). But if you are asking whether a catastrophic event -- such as a huge asteroid striking the Earth and causing cataclysmic devastation -- will lead to mass extinction of all Earth's species, well, that's another matter altogether. According to NASA, the probability that the Earth will be struck by an undiscovered near-Earth object (NEO) that is bigger than one kilometer in diameter is one in 100,000 per year. The chances are much greater -- one in just 100 -- for objects the size of the one believed to have devastated a region of Siberia in 1908. (See provided link to the Tunguska event.) I am assuming that a 1-km asteroid would wreak sufficient havoc to destroy most, if not all, life on the planet.
What is the probability of the sun crashing into the earth?
It is 0. The sun will eventually expand into a red giant and "swallow" the earth but that is not the same as crashing into it.
What is an event with a probability of zero?
mars having zebras as TV hosts for their segment on Earth
There are 38 numbers on a roulette wheel and I bet 12 of them. What is the probability of not hitting one of my numbers on 11 consecutive spins?
If the probability of an event will occur is p, then the probability that it will occur in n trials is pn.(That's p raised to the n power). So if you bet on 12 numbers, then (38-12=26) numbers are empty. The probability of the ball landing on one of these empty numbers is 26/38. So (26/38)^11 = 0.01538, which is about 1.538 % or a 1 in 65 chance.
