There is no simple answer for this.
There are many reasons why a couple may not have children:
- too old,
- same gender,
- the woman is infertile,
- the man is infertile,
- not enough sex
- too much sex
- low sperm count
Narrow down the scope and you have a much better chance of estimating.
If a man and woman are fertile, their chance is extremely high.
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5o/5o
3 out of 7
Since the probability of having a son is about 1/2, the probability of the first 4 children being boys is about (1/2)4.
The probability of exactly 3 girls in a family of 10 children, assuming equal chance of a boy or girl, is 0.1172. This is a binomial distribution.
Assuming that children of either gender are equally likely, the answer is (1/2)3 = 1/8