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A simple answer is 1/12 = 0.0833... since there are 12 months in a year, of which 1 has been selected.

A slightly better estimate, allowing for the the fact that July has 31 days is 31/365 = 0.0849. Adjusting for leap years does not affect the probability at 4 decimal places.

These answers assume that births are uniformly distributed over the year. In fact they are not but comprehensive information on births by month is not readily available.

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11y ago

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