Bradford Services Inc BSI is considering a project that has a cost of 10 million and an expected life of 3 years There is a 30 percent probability of good conditions?
Bradford Services Inc. (BSI) is considering a project that has a
cost of $10 million and an expected life of 3 years. There is a 30
percent probability of good conditions, in which case the project
will provide a cash flow of $9 million at the end of each year for
3 years. There is a 40 percent probability of medium conditions, in
which case the annual cash flows will be $4 million, and there is a
30 percent probability of bad conditions and a cash flow of -$1
million per year. BSI uses a 12 percent cost of capital to evaluate
projects like this.
a. Find the project\'s expected cash flows and NPV.
b. Now suppose the BSI can abandon the project at the end of the
first year by selling it for $6 million. BSI will still receive the
Year 1 cash flows, but will receive no cash flows in subsequent
years. Assume the salvage value is risky and should be discounted
at the WACC.
c. Now assume that the project cannot be shut down. However,
expertise gained by taking it on will lead to an opportunity at the
end of Year 3 to undertake a venture that would have the same cost
as the original project, and the new project\'s cash flows would
follow whichever branch resulted for the original project. In other
words, there would be a second $10 million cost at the end of Year
3, and then cash flows of either $9 million, $4 million, or
-$1million for the following 3 years. Use decision tree analysis to
estimate the value of the project, including the opportunity to
implement the new project in Year 3. Assume the $10 million cost at
Year 3 is known with certainty and should be discounted at the
risk-free rate of 6 percent. Hint: do one decision tree for the
operating cash flows and one for the cost of the project, then sum
their NPVs.
d. Now suppose the original (no abandonment and no additional
growth) project could be delayed a year. All the cash flows would
remain unchanged, but information obtained during that year would
tell the company exactly which set of demand conditions existed.
Use decision tree analysis to estimate the value of the project if
it is delayed by 1 year. Hint: Discount the $10 million cost at the
risk-free rate since it is known with certainty. Show two time
lines, one for operating cash flows and one for the cost, then sum
their NPVs.
e. Go back to part c. Instead of using decision tree analysis,
use the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the growth
option. The risk-free rate is 6 percent, and the variance of the
project\'s rate of return is 22 percent.
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