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There are 36 possible combinations of unique dice rolls (where order doesn't matter, so sorted/deduped). 6 of these are potentially doubles. The total odds are 1/6 (~16.7%). This is because the probability that any of the two die matched any of the other two dice is really just the probability that a die is the same as another die, which is 1/6. Think about it this way, if you rolled two dice the probability that the first one is the same as the second one is 1/6. If you rolled a one, and then rolled a second die and it didn't come up as the first one, but then you rolled a third one you'll find that the probability that doubles occurred is the probability that the first one matches the third one, OR the second one matches the third one IIF the second one did not match the first one, but because they're independent events it's still just what's the probability that doubles occurred between the comparison rather than the set.

This does not take into account triplets being considered doubles. If the potential for triplets is considered (the probability that any two die will have the same value), this becomes a very simple problem because it deals with the likelihood that something can't occur in any form rather than the likelihood that a specific subset will occur. It's simply the probability (after sorting) that the first one is like the second one, or the second one is like the third one. When you think about that, that's really just the probability that all numbers will be different. This means we only have to care about two. The probability that the second is different is 5/6, while the probability that the third is different than both of the first two is 4/6. That makes the probability that no two are alike 5/6 by 4/6. This means that the probability that AT LEAST two are alike is 1 - (5/6 * 4/6), which is 44.444..%. It's an extremely simplified version of the birthday problem.

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Q: Odds of rolling doubles with three dice?
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