Event 1 makes Event 2 happen.
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You could translate Julius Caesar: Event 1: I came Event 2: I saw Event 3: I conquered.
Multiply the probabilities together. For example, if we are looking at the same event occurring four times that has a 1 in four chance of occurring: 1st event=1/4 2nd event=1/16 3rd event=1/64 4th event=1/256
Their sum is 1.Their sum is 1.Their sum is 1.Their sum is 1.
Let p = probability the event will occur; and q = probability the event will not occur. The relationship is p=1-q or q=1-p.
- identify an initial event and number it as 1 ( an initial event is one which has activities or arrows emerging from it and none entering it - delete the arrows emerging from event 1 so as to create one or more initial events - number these new initial events as 2,3,4..... - repeat steps 2 & 3 until last event is obtained which has no arrows emerging out of it.