Yes.
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Subjective based on information given
There are three main methods for assigning probabilities Following the classical definition of probability Using relative frequencies Using subjective probability
When there is uncertainty about the outcome of a trial or experiment.
To me, the theoretical probability is what is termed the classical probability. This says the probability is the number of ways an event can occur divided by the number of possible events. Forexample, flip a coin. The theoretical probability for heads is 1/2. However, flip a coin 10 times and you will probably not get 5/10 (or 1/2). Doing the actual experiment to determine the probability is called relative frequency approximation.
Most people are not statistically trained so the probability of whether or not you are forecasting is so close to 0 that knowing its value is of little help.