Yes.
Subjective based on information given
There are three main methods for assigning probabilities Following the classical definition of probability Using relative frequencies Using subjective probability
When there is uncertainty about the outcome of a trial or experiment.
To me, the theoretical probability is what is termed the classical probability. This says the probability is the number of ways an event can occur divided by the number of possible events. Forexample, flip a coin. The theoretical probability for heads is 1/2. However, flip a coin 10 times and you will probably not get 5/10 (or 1/2). Doing the actual experiment to determine the probability is called relative frequency approximation.
Most people are not statistically trained so the probability of whether or not you are forecasting is so close to 0 that knowing its value is of little help.
When you throw a die, there are six possibilities. The probability of a number from 1 to 6 is 1/6. This is classical probability. Compare this with empirical probability. If you throw a die 100 times and obtain 30 sixes, the probability of obtaining a 6 is 30/100 or 0.3. Empirical probabilities change whereas classical probability doesn't.
Statistics is based on the theoretical foundation of probability.
Classical Probability!
Subjective based on information given
1. subjective probability (intelligent guess) 2. relative frequency (in percent) 3. classical probability (in decimal)
There are three main methods for assigning probabilities Following the classical definition of probability Using relative frequencies Using subjective probability
Classical approach has possible outcomes which are known with certainity ie sampling distribution is known. Relative approach is an approach in which probability values are based on historical interest.
When there is uncertainty about the outcome of a trial or experiment.
Relative frequency approximation is conducting experiments and counting the number of times the event occurs divided by the total number of events. The classical approach is determine the number of ways the event can occur divided by the total number of events.
To me, the theoretical probability is what is termed the classical probability. This says the probability is the number of ways an event can occur divided by the number of possible events. Forexample, flip a coin. The theoretical probability for heads is 1/2. However, flip a coin 10 times and you will probably not get 5/10 (or 1/2). Doing the actual experiment to determine the probability is called relative frequency approximation.
Classical optimization methods are analytical and useful in finding the optimum solution of differentiable and continuous functions. They do have limited scope in practical applications.
Most people are not statistically trained so the probability of whether or not you are forecasting is so close to 0 that knowing its value is of little help.