The sportsmen/women become more motivated, which may increase the chance. But they'll probably lose anyway.
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It can be termed unlikely.
very low
That depends a lot on the specific circumstances, of how you guess. For instance, if a test has true/false questions, the probability is 1/2; if it is a multiple-choice question with 4 options, the probability is 1/4; if there are 6 options, the probability is 1/6, etc.; if you have to calculate a number (and it is NOT a multiple choice question), the probability is rather low, indeed.
If you are talking about mass produced bottles then the probability is very low. There would certainly be some form of quality control in the system to ensure the items fall between the tolerances required.
the pay is really low, and its a competitive gig to get as well.