the probability a certain event will occur :-)
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Roll a fair cubic die. The theoretical probability of it ending up with any particular face on top is 1/6
There may not have been a sufficient number of experiments carried out. The experiments may not have been carried out properly. There may have been incorrect assumptions made in deriving the theoretical probability.
The theoretical probability of rolling a 5 on a standard six sided die is one in six. It does not matter how many times you roll it, however, if you roll it 300 times, the theoretical probability is that you would roll a 5 fifty times.
1/3
The experimental probability of anything cannot be answered without doing it, because that is what experimental probability is - the probability that results from conducting an experiment, a posteri. This is different than theoretical probability, which can be computed a priori. For instance, the theoretical probability of rolling an even number is 3 in 6, or 1 in 2, or 0.5, but the experimental probability changes every time you run the experiment.