Roll a fair cubic die. The theoretical probability of it ending up with any particular face on top is 1/6
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the probability a certain event will occur :-)
The term "theoretical probability" is used in contrast to the term "experimental probability" to describe what the result of some trial or event should be based on math, versus what it actually is, based on running a simulation or actually performing the task. For example, the theoretical probability that a single standard coin flip results in heads is 1/2. The experimental probability in a single flip would be 1 if it returned heads, or 0 if it returned tails, since the experimental probability only counts what actually happened.
There may not have been a sufficient number of experiments carried out. The experiments may not have been carried out properly. There may have been incorrect assumptions made in deriving the theoretical probability.
The theoretical probability of rolling a 5 on a standard six sided die is one in six. It does not matter how many times you roll it, however, if you roll it 300 times, the theoretical probability is that you would roll a 5 fifty times.
1/3