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Bag with 10 marbles: 3 orange, 5 black, 2 white.

Rephrasing the question.

If a marble is drawn from the bag, then returned to the bag, and a second marble

is drawn, what is the probability that the first marble turns out white and the second

marble black ?

The probability for a marble to come out white from the bag is:

P(W) = 2/10 = 1/5

The probability for a marble to come out black from the bag is:

P(B) = 5/10 = 1/2

The probability for a marble to come out white, put back in the bag and then take again a marble for a second time and turns out to be black is:

P(B2|W1) = (1/5)∙(1/2) = 1/10 = 0.10 = 10 %

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