Probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis; that is, the alpha value or risk you are willing to take probabilistically speaking.
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To start with you select your hypothesis and its opposite: the null and alternative hypotheses. You select a confidence level (alpha %), which is the probability that your testing procedure rejects the null hypothesis when, if fact, it is true.Next you select a test statistic and calculate its probability distribution under the two hypotheses. You then find the possible values of the test statistic which, if the null hypothesis were true, would only occur alpha % of the times. This is called the critical region.Carry out the trial and collect data. Calculate the value of the test statistic. If it lies in the critical region then you reject the null hypothesis and go with the alternative hypothesis. If the test statistic does not lie in the critical region then you have no evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
Your question is a bit difficult to understand. I will rephrase: In hypothesis testing, when the sample mean is close to the assumed mean of the population (null hypotheses), what does that tell you? Answer: For a given sample size n and an alpha value, the closer the calculated mean is to the assumed mean of the population, the higher chance that null hypothesis will not be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis.
The probability of the observed value or something more extreme under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. That is, the probability of standard scores at least as extreme as the observed test statistic.
To find the critical value in statistics, it requires a hypothesis testing. Using the critical value approach can also be helpful in this matter.
This will reduce the type 1 error. Since type 1 error is rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true, decreasing alpha (or p value) decreases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis.