Theoretical probability.
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theoretical
The probability is (51.5-51.25)/(52-50) = 0.25/2 = 0.125
Sampling distribution in statistics works by providing the probability distribution of a statistic based on a random sample. An example of this is figuring out the probability of running out of water on a camping trip.
A hypothesis is the first step in running a statistical test (t-test, chi-square test, etc.) A NULL HYPOTHESIS is the probability that what you are testing does NOT occur. An ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS is the probability that what you are testing DOES occur.
The term empirical means "based on observation or experiment." An empirical probability is generally, but not always, given with a number indicating the possible percent error (e.g. 80+/-3%). A theoretical probability, however, is one that is calculatedbased on theory, i.e., without running any experiments.Since there is no theory that will calculate the probability that an area will experience an earthquake within a given time frame, the 90% figure is an empirical probability, presumably based on data of major earthquakes in the San Francisco area over past years.