The theoretical model does not accurately reflect the experiment.
One way to estimate the probability of an event is to use a theoretical model to compare the relative likelihood of the event compared to all possible outcomes.
Provided that the correct model is used, the theoretical probability is correct. The experimental probability tends towards the theoretical value as the number of trials increases.Provided that the correct model is used, the theoretical probability is correct. The experimental probability tends towards the theoretical value as the number of trials increases.Provided that the correct model is used, the theoretical probability is correct. The experimental probability tends towards the theoretical value as the number of trials increases.Provided that the correct model is used, the theoretical probability is correct. The experimental probability tends towards the theoretical value as the number of trials increases.
No.
good question.
Outcomes
The theoretical model does not accurately reflect the experiment.
A probability distribution describes the likelihood of different outcomes in a random experiment. It shows the possible values of a random variable along with the probability of each value occurring. Different probability distributions (such as uniform, normal, and binomial) are used to model various types of random events.
Sometimes it is possible to define a model for a trial or experiment and then use mathematical or scientific rules to determine the probability of the possible outcomes. Such a procedure gives theoretical probabilities.
One way to estimate the probability of an event is to use a theoretical model to compare the relative likelihood of the event compared to all possible outcomes.
Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is a quantitative risk analysis technique in which uncertain inputs in a model (for example an Excel spreadsheet) are represented by probability distributions (instead of by one value such as the most likely value). By letting your computer recalculate your model over and over again (for example 10,000 times) and each time using different randomly selected sets of values from the (input) probability distributions, the computer is using all valid combinations of possible input to simulate all possible outcomes. The results of a MC simulation are distributions of possible outcomes (rather than the one predicted outcome you get from a deterministic model); that is, the range of possible outcomes that could occur and the likelihood of any outcome occurring. This is like running hundreds or thousands of "What-if" analyses on your model, all in one go, but with the added advantage that the 'what-if' scenarios are generated with a frequency proportional to the probability we think they have of occurring.
When you can find a model that satisfactorily captures the scientific laws behind all the possible outcomes of the trial.
There are no generic answers. The theoretical probability for rolling a die and tossing a coin will, obviously, be different. The theoretical probability of an event is calculated by finding a suitable model for the trial and then using scientific laws to determine the probabilities of its outcomes.
The answers are usually always valid. What may or may not be valid are your assumptions about the underlying model. Also, the number of times the results should be similar depends on the number of possible outcomes and the variability in the outcomes. For example, if you spin a fair spinner with 12 equal segments, then the probability of similar results is less than likely.
In theoretical probability, the probability is determined by an assumed model (for example, the normal distribution). (compare with empirical probability)
Provided that the correct model is used, the theoretical probability is correct. The experimental probability tends towards the theoretical value as the number of trials increases.Provided that the correct model is used, the theoretical probability is correct. The experimental probability tends towards the theoretical value as the number of trials increases.Provided that the correct model is used, the theoretical probability is correct. The experimental probability tends towards the theoretical value as the number of trials increases.Provided that the correct model is used, the theoretical probability is correct. The experimental probability tends towards the theoretical value as the number of trials increases.
No.