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Assuming that you cannot repeat any of the numbers that you are using to guess (e.g., would not guess 1, 4 and 4) AND that a match only counts once (e.g., in the serial number A23345678D, the matching 3 only counts as a single match despite appearing more than one time), the probability is between 15.4% and 15.5% (via 5MM simulations).

If we loosen the rules and say that there can be double matches with the numbers that you are guessing (e.g., in the serial number above, if 3 was a guess number, there would be two matches, not just one), the probability is between 25.4% and 25.5% (via 5MM simulations)

The spirit of the question suggests that we would never repeat a guessed number.

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Q: What is the probability of guessing 3 numbers on a dollar bill serial number?
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