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So first of all we need to calculate the probability of the base event, that is to get a pair when rolling 2 dice.

This is quite simple and we can see it in 2 ways.

a) We throw the first dice, regardless of what it comes up as, we have 1 in 6 chanses that the second dice matches it i.e probability = 1/6

b) There are 6*6 possible out comes when rolling two dice. Out of those we can get pair of 1s, pair of 2s , pair of 3s, pair of 4s, pair of 5s or pair of 6s. That is 6 pairs out of 36 total = 1/6 probability.

Now about making a sequence of throws.

The probability of us making the pair in the first throw is as the basic event = 1/6.

If we make it we dont continue and have reached our goal!

If we dont get a pair (proability 1-1/6 = 5/6) we continue and make our second throw. Again we have a 1/6 chanse, so in total that we make it in exactly the 2nd throws is 5/6 (miss)*1/6 (hit) = 5/36.

If we dont make it , we continue again. Now our chance in making it in exactly the 3rd time is 5/6 (miss)*5/6 (miss again) *1/6 (hit) = 25/216.

So the probability of making a pair in three or fewer rolls is the sum of the above, so 1/6 + 5/36 + 25/216 = 91/216 = 0.42 (roughly)

Another way when you have established the probability of a single action to find how many repeats you need is to use the Binomial or Poisson distribution (look it up).

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Q: You roll a pair of dice until you get doubles What is the probability that you get doubles in three or fewer rolls?
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What is the probability of throwing a sum of 15 on three rolls of a fair die if the first roll was a 4?

Rolling a sum of 15 on three rolls of a die, when the first roll is a 4, is the same as rolling a sum of 11 on the second and third roll. The probability of rolling 11 on two dice is 3 in 36, or 1 in 12.


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A dice is rolled three times the probability of getting at least one odd number is?

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What is the probability of rollling a 5 3times ina row?

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What is the probability of throwing a sum of 15 on three rolls of a fair die if the first roll was a 4?

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What is the probability that 6 rolls of a fair die will show exactly three fives?

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